Arrastrada por la criminalidad de las pandillas y subvenciones de un gobierno carente de legitimidad, la economía haitiana se encuentra hoy al borde de la implosión ante los efectos de la guerra en Ucrania.
El alza mundial de los precios del combustible interviene en el peor momento para las autoridades de la isla: la subida de las tarifas en las gasolineras que ordenó en diciembre aún no ha sido digerida por la población.
En Haití, este mercado estratégico es regulado por el Estado. Para comprar la paz social, los gobiernos sucesivos evitan generalmente tocar este expediente sensible.
Antes de diciembre, el anterior alza de precios del combustible databa de mayo de 2017.
Pero desde hace seis meses, los litros de gasolina y diésel cuestan respectivamente 56 centavos y 78 centavos de euros para el consumidor.
Insostenible subvención
Y la carga de reembolsar la diferencia a las compañías petroleras que importan y venden en Haití se ha vuelto demasiado pesada para las autoridades con el brinco de los precios causado por el conflicto en Ucrania.
«Este año, las subvenciones de los combustibles aumentaron en más de 200%», lo que suma «alrededor de 18.000 millones de gourdes», es decir unos 153 millones de euros, precisa el economista Kesner Pharel.
Este monto, que representa dos veces los fondos atribuidos al Ministerio de Salud, no resuelve nada en materia de miseria para el 60% de los haitianos que viven por debajo del umbral de pobreza.
«Eso no ayuda en el plan social porque se trata de una subvención generalizada: no apunta a la gente más desfavorecida», analiza Pharel.
«En diciembre fue evocado un mecanismo para respaldar al (…) sector del transporte público pero, hasta ahora, no se hizo debido a una falta de eficacia del Estado», lamenta.
Y como el país insular importa cinco veces más víveres de lo que exporta, el aumento de los costes del transporte marítimo agrava la inflación, que ya rebasó los 25% a principios del año.
«Vamos a sufrir la inflación importada porque nuestros principales socios comerciales, Estados Unidos y la República Dominicana, también tienen ahora inflación fuerte: nosotros podríamos alcanzar 30% este año», alerta Pharel.
El espectro de las revueltas del hambre de 2008 planea sobre Haití mientras los precios del trigo también aumentan debido a la invasión de Ucrania por Rusia, dos de los principales productores del cereal en el mundo.
Harina 30% más cara
«Esto comienza a afectar toda la producción de bienes industriales derivados del trigo en Haití, como la harina o las pastas alimentarias, que conocen ya, desde la guerra, un alza de más de 30%», resalta el economista Etzer Emile, quien recuerda que Haití importa dos veces más arroz, trigo y maíz de lo que produce localmente.
Mientras los hogares haitianos dedican 60% de sus ingresos a la alimentación, según el instituto nacional de estadística, la inseguridad alimentaria afectaba ya a 4,5 millones de habitantes del país, antes del inicio de la guerra en Europa.
«Esta mañana para el desayuno, los niños pedían pan, pero no pudimos comprar: aunque no les gusta demasiado, lo reemplazamos con galletas de mandioca», cuenta Michele, quien vive en Puerto Príncipe con su madre, hermana y tres sobrinos.
«No podemos comprar tanto arroz como antes. De hecho ahora, ya no tenemos más y estamos pensando si volvemos a comprar o no», confiesa la joven.
Estos desafíos económicos intervienen mientras las pandillas, que ganaron territorio, extorsionan a la población por medio de secuestros cotidianos, cometidos principalmente en la capital.
Huida de los empresarios a República Dominicana
Por medio de la extorsión a la industria, las pandillas se han convertido en un enésimo obstáculo al despertar de la economía haitiana, en recesión desde 2019 y que podría crecer en solamente 0,3% este año, según las previsiones optimistas del gobierno.
«Cada vez más empresas en zonas difíciles, de gran violencia, cierran sus tiendas y dejan a más personas en desempleo», constata Etzer Emile.
Este hundimiento económico de Haití beneficia ampliamente al país vecino.
«Decenas y decenas de empresarios haitianos han migrado a República Dominicana y acá, en Haití, únicamente sostienen a flote a sus compañías», anota con tristeza Grégory Brandt, presidente de la cámara franco-haitiana de comercio e industria.
«En el año fiscal 2021-2022, los haitianos han invertido 250 millones de dólares en República Dominicana», lamenta el hombre de negocio.
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